Monday, January 05, 2009

Coalition = King Harper

Article = none , personal opinion

143 Conservative (Harper)
77 Liberal (Iggy)
49 Bloc (Seperatists)
37 NDP
02 Independant
00 Vacencies
00 Green Party

308 seats in parliment (half = 154, majority = 155)

I think we should game this out.

Rule 1: Conservatives are 12 short of a majority, 12 people change their mind it's all over
Rule 2: Bloc promises to vote with Liberals / NDP on non confidence votes only, to prevent the coalition from falling. Any other vote they'll do as they please.
Rule 3: The Conservatives and the NDP arn't too far apart from each other, ideologically. They both get their funding from private individuals only.

Conclusions...
I think that if the politico's play hard ball then this is a recipie for a hung parliment, one that survives non confident votes , but can't come to an agreement on anything else. Nothing will get done. 12 people from anywhere vote with the big C , and with the Bloc demanding ridiculous things for Quebec and leaving everyone else out in the cold you gotta know that's gonna happen , you've effectively handed Harper a veto on every vote that's not a non confidence vote. You've made him the King Maker.

Worse. If the NDP ever figures out they could get a few things going with the Conservatives , they leave the Bloc and the Liberals out in the cold, and Harper is King again. A little bit of scratch my back and I'll scratch yours and the Libbys are in a deep freeze, a Bloc of Ice with the Bloc , so to speak.

The Bloc , the NDP , and the Conservatives are all in a position to play King Maker. Takes three to party to beat the Conservatives, but only takes two, including the Conservatives, to beat everyone else. Even the smallest of the parties can fill that job and reap a few benifits in the bargaining for their loyalty.

Funding wise , The Liberals have been cut off from their favorite financial backers, big business, another election would bleed them badly. Iggy may refuse to see this , but the rank and file who are looking at suddenly becoming private citizens can. The ones told "raise your own money don't bother us" a few months after they just did it last time around.

Going to be an amusing return from Prorogue, that much is certain.

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